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After more than two years of strict Covid-19 border controls, Japan reintroduced visa-free entry to 68 countries on Tuesday.

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That Japanese yen’The US dollar’s collapse has sparked some concerns in Japan, but that could encourage more travelers to revisit the country, analysts say – although they say any significant recovery in the tourism sector won’t happen without the return of Chinese tourists.

After more than two years of strict Covid border controls, Japan reintroduced visa-free entry to 68 countries on Tuesday.

Package tours are no longer necessary, reported the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO).

The daily entry limit of 50,000 people and the on-arrival PCR test at the airport have been removed. However, travelers from all countries and regions are still required to present a negative Covid test certificate or proof of vaccination, JNTO said.

As restrictions are eased and the yen depreciates, tourism to the country will return quickly — particularly from Asia, Jesper Koll, director of financial services firm Monex Group, told CNBC.

Koll said that while travelers from Europe and the US are important in helping Japan’s tourism recovery, “the bulk of the buzz and the bulk of the travel” still comes from places like Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand.

“The cheapness of the yen obviously increases the likelihood that tourism will be a major contributor to the economy,” Koll said domestic tourism will accelerate very, very quickly.”

In 2019, Japan welcomed 32 million foreign visitors and they spent about 5 trillion yen, but domestic travel spending accounts for just a tenth of that, according to a September release from Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank estimates that spending on inbound flights could reach 6.6 trillion yen ($45.2 billion) after a year of full reopening as the weak yen encourages travelers to spend more.

“Our approximate estimate suggests potentially larger inbound spending of 6.6 trillion yen (annual) after full reopening from pre-pandemic levels of 5 trillion yen, partly helped by the weak yen,” the statement said .

The Japanese currency plunged to a fresh 24-year low, hitting 146.98 against the greenback during London hours on Wednesday.

Japanese officials intervened in the foreign exchange market in September when the dollar-yen rate hit 145.9.

“I don’t think the yen has been as cheap as it is now in living memory,” Darren Tay, Japan economist at Capital Economics, said on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Tuesday. “Tourists were already demanding that borders be reopened… So I think the weak yen will be another motivating factor for them to travel to Japan again.

Though prices for plane tickets to Japan have risen since the announcement, tourists will still get great bang for their buck when spending in Japan, Koll said.

“You can eat twice as many hamburgers and twice as much sushi for your dollar here in Japan as in the United States and even compared to the rest of Asia,” he added.

Chinese tourists ‘hold the key’

Prospects for Japan’s tourism recovery look promising, but “the overall impact on Japan’s economy may not be positive” as Chinese tourists are yet to return, Tay said.

“Chinese tourists actually account for a large chunk of what foreign tourists spent in 2019… They’re still on a zero-Covid strategy, so they won’t be returning any time soon,” he said.

Chinese tourists, who accounted for 30% of foreign visitors to Japan in 2019, may not return until the second quarter of 2023, according to Goldman Sachs.

Once China fully reopens, spending by Chinese visitors could rise to 2.6 trillion yen from 1.8 trillion yen in 2019 — 0.5% of Japan’s gross domestic product, said Yuriko Tanaka, an economist at Goldman Sachs.

“Chinese visitors are key to real recovery in inbound spending,” Tanaka said.

Without visitors from China, it could take time for domestic travel spending in Japan to return to pre-pandemic levels, Koll said. But strong demand from the rest of Asia could see domestic spending by March 2023 “relatively.” fast” to return to over $3 trillion.

Yen prospects

As markets expect the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 75 basis points in November, the yen will continue to weaken as the dollar continues to strengthen, Koll said.

“You have the widening interest rate differential [between Japan and the U.S.], and the Federal Reserve isn’t done yet. At least one more rate hike is on the horizon,” he said.

He added that the yen could weaken further towards 155 and only strengthen next spring – and that would not be the result of action from Japan, but from the Fed signaling that it has “pushed on the brakes enough”. .

Mortgage demand fell again last week as interest rates climbed higher, but one type of loan is attracting borrowers. Adjustable rate mortgages, or ARMs, which offer lower interest rates, are seeing renewed demand after earning very little interest over the past decade.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index, total mortgage applications fell 2% last week from the previous week, reflecting rising interest rates.

The average contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with matching loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased from 6.75% to 6.81%, with points going from 0.95 (including the setup fee) to 0.97 for loans with a Discount of 20% increased payment. This is the highest value since 2006.

“The news that job growth and wage growth continued in September is positive for the housing market as higher incomes support housing demand. However, it has also sidelined the possibility of a near-term turnaround by the Federal Reserve on its plans for additional interest rate hikes,” wrote Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, in a press release.

The average rate for 5/1 ARMs, which is a fixed rate for the first five years, increased slightly but was still lower at 5.56%. The ARM share of the applications was just under 12%. When interest rates were lower earlier this year, that share was just under 3%, where it has been for several years.

ARMs can be locked in for up to 10 years, but are considered riskier loans because the interest rate eventually adjusts to the market interest rate. Interest rates were so low for so long that borrowers didn’t have to take that extra risk before interest rates started to rise.

Higher overall interest rates pushed refinancing demand even further, with requests down 2% this week and 86% year-on-year. At this level of interest rates, there are barely 150,000 borrowers who can benefit from refinancing because so many people already have borrowing at far lower rates, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and analytics company.

Mortgage applications to buy a home, which fell 2% this week, were 39% lower than a year ago. Buyers have fared back this fall as higher interest rates have made affordability even worse. Property prices are beginning to ease, but potential buyers are also concerned that if they buy their new home now, they could lose value in the coming year. Concerns about a recession are also discouraging buyers from making such a big investment.

Mortgage rates continued to rise earlier this week; Another survey by Mortgage News Daily has put 30-year fixed rates now well above 7%. All eyes are now on the latest inflation report, due out on Thursday. It could move rates decidedly either way.

Prosecutors on Tuesday ordered a California federal judge to send a recently escaped man accused of a brazen $35 million fraud to jail without bail.

An FBI SWAT team apprehended fugitive Justin Costello on October 4 in a remote area near San Diego. He was carrying a backpack containing six one-ounce gold bars worth $12,000, $60,000 in U.S. currency, $10,000 in Mexican pesos and banking cards and checkbooks, prosecutors said in a court filing .

Costello, 42, also had a receipt for a prepaid phone number in his backpack, along with a driver’s license with his photo under the name “Christian Bolter,” the filing revealed.

The US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of California cited the contents of the backpack and other factors in the filing when asking a judge to remand Costello pending trial. Prosecutors argued he was “a serious escape risk and a danger to the community.”

They found that Costello had failed to surrender to the FBI’s San Diego office as he agreed with his attorney on September 29. He had been informed that he was facing a new indictment in federal court in Washington state on a series of charges relating to penny stock schemes, shell companies and cannabis companies.

Cash and bullion as described in the court filing in the US District Court in San Diego in the case of former fugitive Justin Costello.

Source: US District Court

Instead, he had “become a fugitive,” prosecutors wrote.

“The FBI attempted to track Costello using his known cell phone numbers but was unsuccessful,” prosecutors wrote. “It is believed that Costello has counter-surveillance measures in place to prevent tracking of devices registered to these numbers.”

The FBI was eventually able to track Costello “through location information he received from theft service for the Alfa Romeo vehicle he was driving,” the filing says.

The SWAT team tracked that car to a remote area of ​​El Cajon, California, where they saw him walking with his backpack, the filing said.

When agents arrested him, Costello said “he was surprised agents found him because he turned off his phone.”

He also told agents he did not surrender as agreed “because he recently had a stroke and was recovering.”

“Costello said that if it weren’t for the stroke, he could have outrun SWAT agents,” the filing reads. “Costello admitted he was the person charged in the indictment and encouraged agents to ‘google’ him to learn more about the case,” he continued.

“Costello was likely referring to the very significant media coverage of his charges and subsequent evasion from prosecution,” prosecutors wrote in a footnote that referenced CNBC’s article about him published last week.

Prosecutors said the FBI learned soon after that the gold in the backpack was part of a larger $94,000 lot of gold Costello bought in April “with money he stole from a bank customer.”

Investigators have determined that since mid-September, the defendant has not used his only known personal bank account for personal expenses and has instead used multiple company accounts to cover his tracks online, prosecutors said.

“The weight of the evidence” against Costello in the pending case – in which he faces charges of wire fraud and securities fraud – “is strong and well documented,” they added.

Costello, who has ties to La Jolla, California, and Las Vegas, is accused of defrauding thousands of investors and others out of millions of dollars by making false claims that companies he controlled were plotting to steal 10 other companies to buy.

He is also accused of using one of the companies, Pacific Banking Corp., to divert at least $3.6 million from three marijuana companies that were customers to benefit him and other companies he owned.

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Prosecutors have said Costello used about $42,000 in money allegedly swindled by investors to pay for expenses related to his wedding. The event included a cake and ice cream sculpture featuring the iconic James Bond 007 film logo and a belly dancing performance by his bride.

Costello allegedly deceived investors with his tall tales about being a billionaire, an Ivy League graduate and an Iraqi veteran, prosecutors said. They determined that none of the claims were true.

He “also falsely claimed that two ‘[l]Local titans of Seattle’s business community “supported” him,” prosecutors wrote in their court filings. They did not name these business leaders.

Costello is scheduled to appear in federal court in San Diego on Tuesday. He is expected to be transferred soon to Washington state to face charges in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington.

An attorney representing him in a civil suit at one of the marijuana companies he is accused of fraud did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Costello is also facing a civil lawsuit filed by the SEC the same day criminal charges against him were unsealed. This lawsuit broadly follows the allegations in the indictment.