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This transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2 – also known as 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19. isolated from a patient in the US oozing from the surface of cells cultured in the laboratory.

Source: NIAID-RML

Even if global Covid-19 infections decline globally, leading US health officials are warning of a wave of infections to come as new, more contagious, and potentially deadly variants of the virus emerge in the US

Scientists are not surprised by the emergence of the new variants and have repeated that the vaccines currently available should continue to work against them – albeit slightly less effective than against the original “wild” strain. However, US health officials and infectious disease experts fear that these highly contagious variants, particularly strain B.1.1.7 found in the UK, could reverse the current downward trend in infections in the US and delay the country’s recovery from the pandemic.

“I think we should assume that the next wave of case growth, as far as we have it, will happen with B.1.1.7 and I think everyone needs to be even more careful.” Andy Slavitt, Senior Advisor to the White House Covid-19, told MSNBC last week. “It’s nice to see the number of cases go down, but it could be misleading.”

Why viruses mutate

As the coronavirus spreads, it makes large numbers of copies of itself, and each version is a little different from the previous one, experts say. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, has had many ways to spread and replicate. The more people infected, the more likely problematic mutations become.

The three main “worrying variants” that US officials are on the verge of were first identified in the UK, South Africa and Brazil. Variant B.1.1.7, first found in Great Britain, is multiplying rapidly in the USA and, according to a study by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is expected to become the dominant variety in the country in January by March.

By mutating, the virus is simply trying to “get to the next host and get more out of itself,” said Dr. Adam Lauring, an infectious disease expert at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, in an interview with the JAMA network on Feb.4. Like other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 tends to mutate more slowly than other viruses like the flu because it has a “proofreading” enzyme that will fix some of the changes when it replicates.

In other cases, “escape mutations” allow the virus to adapt to “selective pressures” when the virus encounters a population that already has some level of immunity to the virus, whether through prior infection, vaccination, or antibody treatment that limits it Ability to spread, but does not stop it.

“You can imagine trying new solutions,” said Lauring. “Either that mutation will make you a better virus or a worse one, and then you have choice. Survival of the fittest because there is no better term.”

Research shows that more worrisome virus mutations could come from people with compromised immune systems as it takes their bodies longer to respond to and clear the virus, giving it more time to figure us out and mutate, said Dr. Dennis Burton, chairman of the Scripps Research Institute for Immunology and Microbiology.

“If someone has the virus and clears it up in a couple of days, you have little chance of mutating,” Burton told CNBC in a phone interview. “But if someone has the virus like an immunocompromised person and has harbored the virus for weeks, it will have a lot more chance of mutating.”

Why are some worse than others?

Few variants become a public health problem, according to infectious disease experts. These variants are usually easier to spread, cause more serious illnesses in infected people, or elude some protection against vaccines and antibodies.

CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told JAMA on Wednesday that variant B.1.1.7 is considered to be about 50% more transmissible and early data suggests it could be up to 50% more virulent or deadly.

There is also evidence that people infected with previous strains of the virus could be re-infected with variant B.1.351 found in South Africa, Walensky wrote in a JAMA position with White House Chief Medical Officer Dr. Anthony Fauci, and Dr. Henry Walke. the CDC’s Covid Incident Manager.

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus, a large family of viruses called “because of the crown-like tips on their surfaces”, according to the CDC. Researchers monitor these spikes, or the S protein, for mutations as they can allow the virus to attach to cells more easily or increase the amount of virus a person gives off.

The S-protein has a so-called “receptor binding domain” that acts like the “hand of the tip” that captures the so-called ACE2 receptor on human cells. Dr. Daniel Griffin, head of infectious diseases at ProHEALTH, told CNBC.

Changes to the S protein could be an issue as these spikes were aimed at neutralizing antibodies that fight Covid-19 and are created through natural infection or vaccination, Griffin said. They could also affect the performance of monoclonal antibody therapies, which prevent people from developing serious diseases.

For example, variant B.1.1.7, identified for the first time in Great Britain, has several different mutations according to the CDC. One of the key mutations, N501Y, is an alteration in the spike protein that scientists believe helps the virus attach to cells more easily.

The same key N501Y mutation developed separately in the B.1.351 variant identified in South Africa and in the P.1 variant in Brazil. Both strains have also developed another mutation in their spike proteins known as E484K.

The CDC warns that this mutation, now identified in some B.1.1.7 cases, may be resistant to antibody drug therapies, and early studies show that it may reduce the effectiveness of some vaccines.

“This is the one that really worries me,” Griffin told CNBC, referring to the E484K mutation.

What this means for vaccines

Although the vaccines against the variants have still been shown to be effective, there is concern that the B.1.351 strain may present some challenges.

Large clinical trials by Johnson and Johnson and Novavax reported that their vaccines had penetrated in late January effectiveness at the test in South Africa, where the variant appeared for the first time. Novavax said its vaccine was Out of 44 Covid-19 cases in South Africa, only 49% were effective, and J&J said its vaccine was 57% effective in preventing symptomatic Covid-19.

World Health Organization vaccination director Kate O’Brien said Thursday that these results do not offer much certainty as the number of cases in the South African trial arms is low.

“We are still in the early stages of interpreting the evidence and again the most important thing is to get more information about what is actually happening in relation to diseases,” O’Brien said at a news conference. “In general, we see that the vaccines retain their effectiveness against disease, albeit at a lower level in environments without the prevalent variants.”

Pfizer and Moderna

Clinical studies from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna were conducted before the variants emerged. Scientists have therefore carried out laboratory tests to determine how well blood samples from people who have already been vaccinated react to virus variants with the key mutations constructed in the laboratory.

These studies, in which it was examined whether the sera in the blood neutralize the virus and prevent its replication, showed a reduction in performance when tested against variant B.1.351. This “indicates that currently used vaccines could be less effective in preventing infections because of this variant,” wrote Walensky, Fauci and Walke from their point of view.

However, your body’s ability to fight off the virus may depend on more than just neutralizing antibodies, including T and B cells, which can help fight the virus but are not measured in the early laboratory tests, Lauring told JAMA.

The good news is that Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had such a high rate of effectiveness even in previous studies – around 95%. So there is a pillow that allows for a drop in performance while it is considered effective by doctors, experts say. The gunshots were also shown to protect against serious illness that would result in hospitalization or death.

Both Pfizer and Moderna have already announced that they are working on a booster shot for their vaccines that will better withstand strain B.1.351.

Find the mutations

The B.1.1.7 variant was first identified in the United Kingdom in December, but is believed to have surfaced sometime in September. Many experts have recognized the UK’s ability to do large-scale genome sequencing to find the variant.

Genome sequencing is a laboratory technique that breaks down the virus’ genetic code and allows researchers to monitor how it changes over time and understand how those changes could affect it, according to the CDC.

According to the latest data from the CDC, there are now 1,661 documented Covid-19 cases with variant B.1.1.7, 22 cases with variant B.1.351 and 5 cases with variant P.1 in the USA. Officials acknowledge that the US is sequencing a small fraction of the cases and the spread of the variants is likely to be far wider. However, the federal government has recently attempted to increase the number of samples sequenced per week to identify these variants and other mutations that may develop domestically.

The CDC has partnered with public health and trade laboratories to rapidly improve genome sequencing in the country. Walensky told JAMA on Wednesday that the US was sequencing only 250 samples a week in January, which has since grown “by the thousands”. She added, “We’re not where we need to be.”

Dr. Ilhem Messaoudi, the director of the University of California at the Irvine Center for Virus Research, said the process could be time-consuming and labor-intensive, but newly emerging strains would be overlooked if the laboratories did not sequence a certain percentage of all positive Covid-19. 19 test results to find the new mutations, she said.

“Now we’re trying to catch up,” Messaoudi said in a telephone interview with CNBC. “We say, ‘Let’s go back and see if we have that.'”

Masks, social distancing

The fast-spreading variants renew the importance of suppressing the spread of the coronavirus through public health measures like wearing masks, social distancing and hand hygiene to prevent further mutations and give countries time to deploy life-saving vaccines.

Coronavirus variants aren’t just a problem for the United States, however. If the virus is spread in other parts of the world that are not vaccinated, it could lead to mutations that could threaten the widely used vaccines in other countries, the CDC chief warned on Wednesday.

At some point, the whole world has to build immunity to the virus, otherwise the variants will continue to be a problem, Burton told CNBC.

“Sooner or later, variants will be everywhere if they have a big advantage,” said Burton. “It’s a global problem, it’s not just a problem for one country.”

People wear face masks as they walk through Herald Square in New York City on January 8, 2021.

Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images

Macy’s reported its first quarterly profit in a year on Tuesday as its efforts to reduce inventory levels over the holidays and rely less on deep discounts are paying off.

The company expects 2021 to be a year of recovery and rebuilding as it fights back from the losses it suffered during the pandemic. It offered a prospect of persistent pandemic-related obstacles in the spring, with momentum escalating in the latter half of 2021.

Like many of his colleagues, Macy’s has been injured by shoppers who made fewer trips to the mall and bought fewer clothes when they worked from home and attended fewer special events during the health crisis.

Macy’s shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.

Here’s how the company performed in the fourth quarter ended January 30th, compared to analyst expectations based on a survey by Refinitiv:

• Earnings per share: 80 cents, adjusted compared to 12 cents, expected
• Revenue: $ 6.78 billion versus $ 6.5 billion expected

Net income fell from $ 340 million, or $ 1.09 per share last year, to $ 160 million, or 50 cents per share. With no one-off costs, the company made 80 cents per share, better than the 12 cents expected by analysts.

Revenue declined from $ 8.34 billion a year ago to $ 6.78 billion. That was better than what analysts had expected to be $ 6.5 billion.

According to Macy’s, sales in the same store based on proprietary and licensed products decreased 17.1% from 2019. Analysts called for a decline of 21.3% according to Refinitive data.

CEO Jeff Gennette noted that the company saw its greatest strength in the quarter in the home, beauty, jewelry, and timepiece sectors, as consumers diverted more of their spending from clothes and fancy shoes to accessories and items to their homes beautify.

Ecommerce sales rose 21% over the last period. The company said digital sales accounted for 44% of net sales, while roughly a quarter of Macy’s digital sales for the quarter came from its stores.

Macy’s predicts that annual online sales will exceed $ 10 billion over the next three years as the department store operator anticipates that customers’ buying habits of buying more online will extend beyond the pandemic.

Macy’s is in the process of trimming its real estate to keep the better-formed stores open in America’s best malls. In 2019, the company announced that it would close 125 locations by 2023. Earlier this year, as part of its three-year shutdown plan, Macy’s released the locations of more than 40 stores, which are slated to close by mid-2021.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2021, Macy’s claims sales between $ 19.75 and $ 20.75 billion. Analysts had asked for annual sales of 20.13 billion US dollars.

The adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between 40 and 90 cents. Analysts had forecast adjusted earnings of 77 cents per share.

Read the full Macy’s press release and materials here.

On October 23, 2020, at the Melia Varadero International Hotel in Matanzas Province, a man is standing near a Cuban national flag. Varadero, Cuba’s main seaside resort, is reopening to international tourism amid the coronavirus pandemic.

YAMIL LOCATION | AFP | Getty Images

Cuba’s most advanced Covid-19 vaccine candidate is set to enter late-stage clinical trials next week, bringing the tiny island nation ever closer to an exceptional medical performance that analysts believe will have far-reaching ramifications across the global south.

Cuba’s most promising vaccine candidate of the four under development is Soberana 02. The vaccine name translates from Spanish to “Sovereign”, an alleged allusion to Cuba’s national pride in its world-famous healthcare system.

Soberana 02 is scheduled to enter phase 3 studies from March 1. According to official figures, up to 150,000 volunteers will take part in the tests within weeks. Phase 3 trials represent the final phase before a vaccine is generally approved by national regulatory authorities.

It comes at a time when many people in Cuba are forced to stand in line for hours to buy basic goods and the authorities continue to adhere to a decade-long US trade embargo – with sanctions that former President Donald Trump has in recent years Years.

“It’s just this incredible dichotomy,” Helen Yaffe, a Cuba expert and lecturer in economic and social history at the University of Glasgow, Scotland, told CNBC over the phone.

“On one hand, you have this high-tech biotech sector that brings a lot of hope to the global south because there is the possibility of an affordable vaccine – (and) vaccinating the global south will be the priority,” said Yaffe.

“And at the same time, Cubans get up at four or five in the morning to join the queue because there is a real shortage of really basic food and even medicine.”

What do we know about Soberana 02?

The Cuban Finlay Institute, the country’s leading biopharma institution, is overseeing the development of Soberana 02. Vicente Verez, director of the institute, has indicated that the vaccine could be available as an option to tourists later this year.

If Soberana 02 is found to be safe and effective, the development of a domestically manufactured vaccine will likely be hailed as an astounding scientific breakthrough and major political triumph. Cuba would also be the first Latin American country to immunize its population with a domestically manufactured vaccine.

Technician Mayelin Mejias will work in the vaccine aseptic and packaging processing facility at the Finlay Vaccine Institute in Havana on January 20, 2021.

YAMIL LOCATION | AFP | Getty Images

The government has not yet outlined any concrete plans for vaccinating tourists, but analysts say it is possible for foreigners traveling to Cuba to receive their first dose of vaccine on the island before subsequent doses to take away.

Although public data are limited, it is believed that up to three doses of the vaccine could be given at two-week intervals.

People are already talking about sun, sea, sand and Soberana 02. So I wouldn’t be surprised if people went to Cuba to look for the vaccine and I’m sure the Cubans will offer it.

Helen Yaffe

Lecturer in Economic and Social History at the University of Glasgow

Yaffe, who is also the author of We Are Cuba !: How a Revolutionary People Survived in a Post-Soviet World, said Cuba’s sophisticated health system would help the country introduce the vaccine “extremely” quickly.

“I can guarantee that. And if they have a vaccine every two weeks, people could be vaccinated within a month of starting,” Yaffe said.

“By the summer, people will be pretty desperate to go on vacation, and I think Cuba, which is nominating itself as the ideal travel destination. People are already talking about sun, sea, sand and Soberana 02. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Die People go to Cuba to find the vaccine and I’m sure the Cubans will offer it. “

How does it work?

The Soberana 02 vaccine is a conjugated vaccine. This is a type of vaccine that contains a portion of the spike protein that binds or conjugates to human cells to increase its stability and effectiveness.

Unlike other coronavirus vaccine candidates like Pfizer-BioNTech, Soberana 02 doesn’t require any additional cooling requirements. This should ease the logistical and administrative challenges associated with vaccination programs in low-income countries.

People line up in Havana to buy groceries on Feb.2, 2021 as Covid-19 cases emerge in the island nation.

YAMIL LOCATION | AFP | Getty Images

At a virtual session led by the Pan American Health Organization on February 5, Dr. Verez, Soberana 02 returned “encouraging results” in the early test phases. He added that the vaccination has not yet produced any significant side effects.

The Cuban government has announced that it will produce 100 million cans of Soberana 02 this year to meet the needs of its own citizens as well as those in other countries. It is said to be one of the first countries in the world to vaccinate its entire population in 2021, though many advanced nations started administering bumps almost two months ago.

Several countries have expressed an interest in purchasing the vaccine, including Vietnam, Iran, Venezuela and the African Union, which represents all 55 countries in Africa.

Cuba, which has seen relatively few Covid cases compared to other countries in the region, has seen a sharp rise in infections and deaths in recent weeks. To date, Cuba has recorded 45,361 cases of the coronavirus and 300 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.

“One of the world’s best kept secrets”

Cuba has long been known for its medical diplomacy. Thousands of professionals have been sent abroad to help countries cope with short-term crises, natural disasters and medical emergencies.

Human rights groups have raised concerns that the Cuban government is imposing repressive rules on doctors working abroad and invoking the right to privacy, freedom, expression and association.

At the start of the Covid-19 outbreak, Cuba had an estimated 24,500 medical workers in 58 countries. Another 4,000 members of the Cuban Henry Reeve Brigade, a group of highly respected health professionals, have worked in countries from Kuwait to Mexico, Italy to South Africa.

Cuban doctors during a welcoming ceremony for Cuban health workers deployed in Cape Town, South Africa, in the Western Cape on May 24, 2020 to support efforts in the fight against COVID-19.

Mischa Jordaan | Gallo Images via Getty Images

It’s a deeply rooted tradition that the country, with just over 11 million, has more medical staff working overseas than all of the G7 countries combined.

“This is an extraordinary recording, largely unknown to the mainstream media – one of the best-kept secrets in the world,” said John Kirk, a professor in the Latin America program at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, Canada, via email to CNBC.

“Medical internationalism is in Cuban DNA, and the preamble to the Cuban Constitution mentions the obligation that Cuba must share its medical talent with developing countries,” he added.

The Lucid Air sedan, which is slated to go into production at a facility in Arizona next year.

Clear

Electric vehicle company Lucid Motors plans to enter through a reverse merger with a blank check company founded by veteran investment banker Michael Klein with a combined equity value of $ 11.75 billion and a pro forma equity value of $ 24 billion to go the stock market.

The deal between Lucid of Newark, California, and Churchill Capital Corp IV is the largest in a series of such collaborations between EV companies and blank check companies, also known as Special Purpose Acquisition Companies or SPACs.

Previous SPAC deals with EV startups like Nikola, Fisker, and Lordstown Motors achieved pro forma valuations of less than $ 4 billion, but Lucid is further ahead than these companies. Lucid will deliver its first vehicle this spring – a luxury sedan named Air.

The deal will generate approximately $ 4.4 billion in cash for expansion plans for Lucid, including the current Arizona factory.

CCIV stocks fell roughly 30% to $ 40 in expanded trading.

Lucid is led by ex-Tesla engineering manager and automotive veteran Peter Rawlinson, who joined the company as Chief Technology Officer in 2013 before adding CEO to his duties in April 2019. He will continue these functions after the expected closing of the EU deal in the second quarter, according to the company.

Lucid was founded in 2007 as Atieva, a name it now uses for its technical and engineering division that supplies batteries for the Formula E electric circuit. The company initially focused on electric battery technology before changing its name to an electric vehicle manufacturer in 2016, three years after Rawlinson joined the company to lead technology development.

Lucid struggled with some difficulty raising capital to fund his plans until he received $ 1 billion from the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund in September 2018.

Rawlinson described SPAC deals last year as easy money but not enough capital to get a vehicle into production, which has led companies like Fisker to look for contract manufacturers.

Prior to the announcement at Klein’s company, Rawlinson said the company had the funds to begin producing the air at a facility in Casa Grande, Arizona, southeast of Phoenix.

The new funding is intended to support Lucid in its expansion plans. Rawlinson expects the Air to be the catalyst for a number of future all-electric vehicles, including an SUV starting production in early 2023, and cheaper vehicles across the board.

Lucid currently employs almost 2,000 people. The US is expected to employ 3,000 people domestically by the end of 2022.

The deal includes a total investment of around $ 4.6 billion. It is funded with $ 2.1 billion in cash from CCIV and a fully committed PIPE of $ 2.5 billion at $ 15 per share from the Saudi Arabian state fund, as well as funds and accounts held by BlackRock, Fidelity and managed by others.