The economic system may open up by late spring if sufficient persons are vaccinated, says Dr. Ashish Jha

Dr. Ashish Jha told CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” on Tuesday that US states could make decisions about opening up businesses and economies earlier than predicted if enough people are vaccinated.

“My relatively optimistic view is that we don’t have to wait until the end of summer or even the beginning of summer. If enough people have been vaccinated in late spring, you will really see case numbers come down a lot,” said Jha, dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University. “That will allow us to open up the economy a lot more so that we don’t have to wait and just make sure the infections – the high infection rates we have right now – get better . “

President Joe Biden set a benchmark in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. He promised to get enough vaccine doses to the states for almost every American by the end of summer. Biden said he would give the government another 200 million doses of the vaccine – half from Pfizer and the other half from Moderna. The deal would increase the country’s vaccine supply to 600 million shots.

“This is enough vaccine to fully vaccinate 300 [million] Americans by the end of summer, the beginning of autumn, “Biden said at the White House on Tuesday.

To vaccinate 300 million people by September 22, the last day of summer, the nation will need 600 million doses at the rate of about 2.4 million shots a day. That assumes it goes beyond the 23 million that have already been bumped. Biden said the government would be sending 10 million shots a week for the next three weeks. That is an increase of almost 20% over what is currently being delivered.

Johnson & Johnson expects results for its Covid vaccine early next week. CNBC’s Meg Tirrell said the company conducted its test on three continents, including South Africa and Brazil, where the highly communicable new variants were identified. This means that Johnson & Johnson’s results could provide vital information on how vaccines developed around the original strain of Covid work against the emerging ones.

Dr. Bruce Becker, associate professor of behavioral medicine and social sciences at Brown University’s School of Public Health, told The News with Shepard Smith that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine requires only one shot and therefore achieves immunity in 14 to 21 years will days.

“The J&J vaccine can vaccinate twice the number of patients for any given vaccine supply – twice the coverage and immunity in less than half the time,” Becker said. “That is a much greater efficiency in blocking the spread of Covid.”

Jha told host Shepard Smith that a single dose would “greatly” aid in vaccination effort, but questioned the company’s manufacturing capacity.

“I think one of the less clear questions is how much stock of J&J vaccines we have.” asked Jha. “There have been some reports that it didn’t go that well, production didn’t go that well, but either way, a dose is so much easier to give as a vaccine.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a study Tuesday that found that Covids spread in schools is very low with the right precautions. Jha stated that the US can open schools across the country, but “we have to do it” with preventive measures that include masks and effective ventilation.

Becker underlined the importance of preventive measures and even said that non-compliant students should be excluded from school.

“Masking work, social distancing work, and the deadly misinformation circulated by the previous government and their voices created our current dilemma,” Becker said. “Schools can be opened if the rules are followed exactly.”

Biden said Tuesday “it will be months before we can vaccinate the majority of Americans” and that “masks not vaccines” are the best defense against Covid as Americans wait for their vaccine.

Schifffahrtsunternehmen lehnten US-Agrarexporte ab und schickten leere Container nach China

Ein Frachtschiff steht am Hafen von Long Beach, Kalifornien.

Joe Klamar | AFP | Getty Images

Laut einer CNBC-Untersuchung lehnten Spediteure im Oktober und November US-Agrarexportcontainer im Wert von Hunderten von Millionen Dollar ab und schickten stattdessen leere Container nach China, um sie mit rentableren chinesischen Exporten zu füllen.

Die Federal Maritime Commission hat Petitionen von US-Agrarexporteuren erhalten, in denen darauf hingewiesen wird, dass die Verzögerungen im Handel nicht nur die Gewinne, sondern auch das Ansehen der Branche gefährden.

Die Kommission leitete ihrerseits eine Untersuchung ein und überprüft die Handelsdaten der wichtigsten Häfen in Kalifornien, New York und New Jersey, um festzustellen, ob die Weigerung der Luftfahrtunternehmen, US-Exportgüter zu verladen, einen Verstoß gegen das Schifffahrtsgesetz darstellt.

Das Gesetz macht es für Luftfahrtunternehmen rechtswidrig, “sich unangemessen zu weigern, Geschäfte zu verhandeln oder zu verhandeln”, “zu boykottieren oder andere konzertierte Maßnahmen zu ergreifen, die zu einer unangemessenen Weigerung führen” oder “Verhaltensweisen zu begehen, die die Nutzung intermodaler Dienste unangemessen einschränken”.

Die Verweigerung von Exportcontainern erfolgte, als die US-Agrarexporte in ihre Hochsaison eintraten. Während die Exporte 12 Monate lang ununterbrochen laufen, sind die Monate November bis März von entscheidender Bedeutung, da sie der Ernte der Pflanzen folgen.

Aufgrund der in diesem Fenster abgeschlossenen Bestellungen haben die landwirtschaftlichen Erzeuger mehr Klarheit bei der Planung der bevorstehenden Ernte. Während der Wintermonate treffen sich Landwirte und Produzenten mit Banken, um Mittel für den nächsten Zyklus zu sichern.

Es besteht auch die Gefahr der brasilianischen Ernte, die im Februar kommt. Die größte Lektion, die der Agrarsektor während des US-Handelskrieges mit China gelernt hat, ist, dass keine Verträge heilig sind – sie können immer auf eine andere Saison verschoben oder ganz gekündigt werden.

Millionen von Dollar im abgelehnten Handel

Laut einer Analyse der vom Census Bureau und den Häfen von Los Angeles, Long Beach, Kalifornien sowie New York und New Jersey zusammengestellten Daten lehnten die Luftfahrtunternehmen im Oktober und November geschätzte 177.938 Container ab, die als TEUs (20-Fuß-Äquivalente) bekannt sind.

Mitte Oktober teilten die Luftfahrtunternehmen den Agrarexporteuren mit, dass sie leere Exportcontainer gegenüber Agrarexporten priorisieren würden. Sie sagten auch, sie würden die Preise für US-Agrarexporte erhöhen, wenn die Waren transportiert würden.

Nach Angaben des Hafenhandels betrug das gesamte Exportcontainerdefizit für die Häfen von Long Beach und Los Angeles 136.392 TEU. Schätzungsweise 41.546 TEU wurden aus dem Hafen von New York und New Jersey verweigert. Der Gesamtwert des verlorenen Exporthandels aus diesen Häfen beträgt 632 Millionen US-Dollar.

Um den Wert des potenziellen Handelsverlusts infolge der Ablehnung von Agrarexporten zu berechnen, verwendete CNBC den containerisierten Agrarexportpreis für Sojabohnen / Ölsaaten / Getreide im Hafen von Los Angeles, der auf der Website US-Volkszählung, USA Trade Online zu finden ist . Der Wert dieses Exports beträgt 3.552 USD pro TEU.

Diese Bilanz wurde berechnet, indem die Differenz zwischen den tatsächlichen Leerexporten im Jahr 2020 und dem Anteil der Exportleeren im Jahr 2019 herangezogen wurde.

“Diese geschätzten TEU sind die leeren Exporte, die bis 2020 hätten gefüllt werden sollen”, sagte John Martin, Manager des Wirtschafts- und Transportberatungsunternehmens Martin Associates, wer überprüfte die Ergebnisse von CNBC. “Diese Formel zeigt Ihnen das erhöhte Verhältnis von leeren Exportcontainern zu Gesamtexporten. Diese Daten legen insbesondere das Argument von Los Angeles, Long Beach nahe, dass leere Exportcontainer so schnell wie möglich bewegt wurden und US-Exportfracht auf den Docks zurückblieb.”

Dies unterstreicht unsere anhaltende Abhängigkeit von China.

John Martin

Martin Associates

Bei der Überprüfung der Import- und Exportdaten von Januar 2020 bis November stellte CNBC fest, dass das Muster dieses wachsenden US-Exportcontainerdefizits bereits im Juni für Los Angeles, im Juli für Long Beach und im August für New York und New Jersey einsetzte.

Von Juli bis November wurde insgesamt 297.997 TEU aus den Häfen von Los Angeles, Long Beach sowie New York und New Jersey ein Containerdefizit von 1,1 Mrd. USD verweigert.

“Im Vergleich zu den gleichen Monaten in den vorangegangenen Zeiträumen ist das Verhältnis von leeren Exportcontainern zu Gesamtexporten deutlich gestiegen”, sagte Martin. “Dies unterstreicht unsere anhaltende Abhängigkeit von China.”

Drei von vier Containern aus den USA nach Asien gehen laut Mark Yeager, CEO von Redwood Logistics, “leer”, der die Ergebnisse der CNBC-Analyse unterstützte. “Der Grund dafür ist, dass die Chinesen so aggressiv versuchen, leere Container zurückzubekommen … dass es schwierig ist, einen Container für US-Exporteure zu bekommen.”

Die Ports wiegen

CNBC teilte seine Daten mit den Häfen von Los Angeles, Long Beach sowie New York und New Jersey.

“Amerikanische Landwirte und Agrarexporteure sollten nicht nach Containern suchen müssen, um ihre Waren auf den Markt zu bringen”, sagte Gene Seroka, Geschäftsführer des Hafens von Los Angeles. “Wir brauchen eine kohärente US-Exportpolitik, die eine Reihe von Themen angeht, einschließlich der Zugänglichkeit von Containern für unsere Agrarmärkte im ganzen Land.”

Carl Bentzel von der Federal Maritime Commission sandte zusammen mit seinem Kommissionskollegen Daniel Maffei im Dezember einen Brief an den World Shipping Council, in dem er sagte, die Ablehnung von US-Exporten durch große Seeschifffahrtsunternehmen könnte einen Verstoß gegen das US-Schifffahrtsgesetz darstellen.

“Diese Daten und die Auswirkungen auf unsere Wirtschaft sind möglicherweise sehr besorgniserregend, aber leider nicht ganz überraschend”, sagte Bentzel gegenüber CNBC. “Diese Zahlen stimmen ziemlich gut mit den Beschwerden überein, die wir in den letzten vier oder fünf Monaten regelmäßig beim FMC erhalten haben. Meine Kommissionskollegen und ich haben diese Beschwerden an unser Vollzugsbüro und an die laufende Commission Fact Finding-29 weitergeleitet und sie bewerten und bewerten derzeit die Ansprüche auf mögliche Durchsetzung. ”

Quelle: Knight Port Logistics

The Fact Finding 29 ist eine im März genehmigte Untersuchung, mit der Maßnahmen in der internationalen Lieferkette und im operativen Bereich des Seetransports ermittelt werden sollen, die den internationalen Handelsfluss stören würden. Die Untersuchung wurde im November ausgeweitet und umfasste die Rückgabe von Containern und die Verfügbarkeit von Containern für US-Exportgüter sowie die Gebühren für Lagerung und verspätete Gebühren, die Spediteure den Exporteuren berechnen.

Aber Fluggesellschaften wie Hapag-Lloyd aus Deutschland sagten CNBC, dass sie tatsächlich die Agrarexporte bewegen.

Uffe Ostergaard, Präsident der amerikanischen Niederlassung von Hapag-Lloyd, sagte, das Unternehmen habe gesehen, dass Landwirtschaftsversender storniert haben oder nicht erschienen sind, wobei etwa 40% der Buchungen getätigt wurden.

“Dies entspricht den historischen Durchschnittswerten, aber Sie würden erwarten, dass diese Stornierungen abnehmen würden, wenn es reale Platz- oder Ausrüstungsbeschränkungen gäbe”, sagte er. “In Bezug auf Agrarexporte aus den USA hat Hapag Lloyd die Verlader weiterhin ohne Unterbrechung bedient, ebenso wie die breitere Containertransportbranche. … Wir arbeiten eng mit den Verladern zusammen, die die aktuellen Herausforderungen im Allgemeinen sehr gut verstehen und versuchen, sich anzupassen ihre Lieferketten entsprechend. “

Ein Vertreter von Evergreen Line sagte, es habe mit Beamten der Federal Maritime Commission an ihren Ermittlungen gearbeitet.

“Wie bereits erwähnt, haben zahlreiche Faktoren zur Überlastung der genannten Häfen beigetragen, und wir arbeiten weiterhin mit FMC-Beamten zusammen, um Bedenken zu untersuchen”, sagte Michael Vooss von Vooss Hanemann Associates im Namen der Fluggesellschaft. “Obwohl die globalen Bedingungen im vergangenen Jahr die Bewegung innerhalb der Lieferkette in regelmäßigen Abständen in Frage gestellt haben, ist es unsere Priorität geblieben, Kunden auf unseren Handelswegen sowohl für eingehende als auch für ausgehende Fracht zu bedienen, damit sich der Handelsfluss so schnell und zuverlässig wie möglich bewegen kann. “”

Die Unternehmenskommunikation von Maersk lehnte eine Stellungnahme ab und verwies auf die ruhige Ertragsphase des Unternehmens. Die Anfrage nach Kommentaren von CMA CGM SA, Cosco Shipping und ZIM Integrated Shipping Services wurde nicht zurückgesandt.

Während das landwirtschaftliche Exportvolumen für 2020 aufgrund des Phase-One-Handelsabkommens der USA mit China größer war als 2019, blieben die Käufe hinter den Zielen zurück. Nach Angaben des Peterson Institute for International Economics importierte China 100 Milliarden US-Dollar der im Rahmen des Deals vereinbarten US-Waren – rund 58% der angestrebten 173,1 Milliarden US-Dollar. Ein Export ist erst dann offiziell, wenn er im Bestimmungsland transportiert und verarbeitet wird. Der Anstieg der Agrarexporte verblasst jedoch im Vergleich zu der erhöhten Ration leerer Exportcontainer.

“Die Anzahl der Hände, die die Exporte der Ag oder US-Exporte berühren, liegt in Millionenhöhe”, sagte Peter Friedmann, Geschäftsführer der Agriculture Transportation Coalition. “Von der Farm über die Verarbeitung, Lagerung bis hin zum Transport ist die Anzahl der Arbeitsplätze in dieser Produktions- und Lieferkette enorm.”

Laut dem US-Landwirtschaftsministerium trugen die amerikanischen Farmen 2019 136,1 Milliarden US-Dollar zum BIP bei, was etwa 0,6% entspricht. Landwirtschaft, Ernährung und verwandte Industrien trugen 2019 1,109 Billionen US-Dollar zum US-Bruttoinlandsprodukt bei, was einem Anteil von 5,2 Prozent entspricht.

“Gerade wenn Sie glauben, dass die amerikanische Ag-Industrie Vollgas geben kann, beginnt diese Diskriminierung aufgrund des Exporttransports”, sagte Friedmann.

“Das geht über den Handel hinaus”

Amerikanische Landwirte sagen, dass sie sich jetzt in einem neuen Kampf befinden – sie müssen sich mit dem wachsenden Netz der Exportverweigerung oder Verzögerungen auseinandersetzen, die sich auf ihre Gewinne auswirken.

Bob Sinner, Präsident von SB & B Foods, einem großen amerikanischen Sojabohnenexporteur, teilte CNBC einige der Details mit, die ihm die Transportunternehmen bezüglich der Ablehnung oder Verzögerung seiner Exporte mitgeteilt hatten.

Anfang Januar gab Sinner, der auch Vorsitzender der Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance ist, an, dass 30% bis 40% der Gesamtexporte seines Unternehmens entweder verzögert oder annulliert wurden.

“Der Kundenservice lehnt nicht nur die Buchung ab, sondern versucht auch, seinem Vertriebsmitarbeiter das Geld zu geben, indem er erklärt, dass er unseren Kontokorrentplan einhält, was nicht der Fall ist”, sagte Sinner. “Dann sagt der Vertriebsmitarbeiter, dass die Kundendienstinformationen nicht korrekt sind und dass er sie untersucht, aber wir haben noch nichts von unserem Vertriebsmitarbeiter, um dies zu korrigieren. Dann kommt derselbe Kundendienstmitarbeiter mit einer Erklärung zurück, die es versucht um uns die Schuld zu geben, indem wir erklären, dass unsere Buchungsstornierung akzeptiert wurde. Diese Spediteure werden gut darin, keine Schuld zu übernehmen und versuchen, dem Versender die Schuld zu geben. “

Er fügte hinzu: “Dies geht über den Handel hinaus. Hier geht es auch um die Ernährungssicherheit. Unsere Sojabohnen sind lebensmittelecht. Wir versenden zwischen 690 und 700 Beutel in einem einzigen Behälter. Jeder Beutel enthält ungefähr 275 Stück Tofu. Das sind viele Münder, die wir füttern . “

Quelle: Knight Port Logistics

Die Verweigerung des Handels zwang Sinner kürzlich dazu, 6-Tonnen-Säcke per Luftfracht an seine Kunden in Nordasien zu senden, um deren Bedürfnisse zu erfüllen.

Die Verweigerung und Verzögerung von Agrarexporten kann auch per LKW verfolgt werden.

Auf dem Hof ​​von Knight Port Logistics, das Baumwolle, Altpapier, Plastikschrott und Altmetall transportiert, stapeln sich laut Kyle Layne, Exportdirektor des Unternehmens, Container.

“Die Baumwollexporte werden wochenlang verlängert, und es gibt keine Exportbuchungen für Schrott- und Kunststoffschrottexporte”, sagte Layne. “Diese Container befinden sich auf einem Chassis, was den Chassis-Mangel noch verstärkt.”

Das Rekordimportvolumen Chinas in Los Angeles und Long Beach sowie die Verlangsamung der Verlagerung von Containern von Schiffen aus Los Angeles haben das Problem des leeren Exports noch verstärkt.

“Wir mussten monatelang auf Containern sitzen”, sagte Layne. “Derzeit haben wir insgesamt über 600 Container in unserem Besitz, von denen derzeit etwa die Hälfte in unserem Hof, nur wenige Kilometer vom Hafen entfernt, sitzt.” In einem normalen Handelsumfeld gibt es höchstens 100 bis 150 Container, sagte er.

“Bei den beladenen Containern handelt es sich hauptsächlich um US-Exporte, die wir noch in den Hafen bringen wollen”, fügte er hinzu.

Layne sagte, das Problem bei der Rückkehr dieser US-Exporte sei das Fehlen von Terminen am Terminal, das bei der Verladung der Exporte mit den Transportunternehmen koordiniert werde.

“Das Verhältnis unseres Import / Export-Geschäfts beträgt normalerweise 70/30. Jetzt ist es 90/10”, sagte er. “Die Exporte sind für uns bis Ende 2020 um rund 30% gesunken. Wir haben einen Rückgang des Exportvolumens um 15% festgestellt. Es ist für uns einfacher, einen leeren Container in das Terminal in Los Angeles zu bringen als einen US-Export.”

– Weizhen Tan von CNBC hat zu diesem Bericht beigetragen.

HBO Max There’s No “I” In Threesome Examines Polyamory

Committed, but not exclusive.

On Tuesday, January 26th, HBO Max released a trailer for his new documentary “There Is No” I “in Threesome, which follows a newly engaged couple on their way to an open relationship.

“This is Zoe, she’s an actress, and that’s me, Ollie. I make films,” director and star Jan Oliver Lucks starts in the trailer below. “We got engaged a year ago and have been in an open relationship for three months.”

While Zoe and Ollie may be “in love,” as the preview suggests, they’re not exclusive. This becomes very evident as the trailer teases many hookups, including the couple’s “first threesome”.

Ollie explains why the two decided to research polyamory: “The idea is to highlight an alternative to monogamy. That you can have your cake and eat it too.”

Still, Ollie warns, “That’s how it started anyway.”

Although Ollie mentions that he insists on “some rules”, he finds himself with “a friend and a fiancé”.

Starbucks (SBUX) Q1 2021 Earnings High Estimates

Kevin Johnson, CEO of Starbucks

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

Starbucks reported Tuesday that U.S. sales fell 5% in the first quarter of fiscal year after a surge in new Covid-19 cases led to tighter food restrictions.

The company also announced that COO Roz Brewer will be leaving Starbucks in late February to become CEO of another publicly traded company. Your tasks will be shared among other members of the existing management team.

In extended trading, stocks fell around 1%.

The company reported for the quarter ended December 27, versus Wall Street expectations, based on an analyst survey conducted by Refinitiv:

  • Earnings per share: 61 cents, adjusted compared to 55 cents expected
  • Revenue: $ 6.75 billion versus $ 6.93 billion expected

The company reported net income of $ 622.2 million, or 53 cents per share, for the first quarter, compared to $ 885.7 million, or 74 cents per share, a year earlier.

Without articles, the coffee giant earned 61 cents per share, exceeding the analysts surveyed by Refinitiv, 55 cents per share.

Net sales were down 5% to $ 6.75 billion, below expectations of $ 6.93 billion. Globally, the company’s sales in the same store decreased 5%. The chain saw 19% fewer transactions in the quarter, but the average ticket increased 17%.

In the US, sales in the same store were down 5%. The company’s recovery in its home market was hampered by a further surge in new Covid-19 cases as temperatures turned colder. The number of Starbucks Rewards members who have been active in the past 90 days rose 15% to 21.8 million people.

In China, Starbucks’ second largest market, sales in the same store turned positive for the first time since the health crisis began. Revenue in the same store increased 5%, although transactions were still down from the same period last year.

The company opened 278 new Netto cafes in the quarter and now has nearly 33,000 locations.

For the next quarter, Starbucks predicts US sales growth of 5% to 10%. In China, sales in the same business are expected to nearly double. It is expected to make 36 cents to 41 cents per share. Adjusted earnings per share of 45 to 50 cents are forecast.

The company also raised its outlook for FY 2021 results. Earnings per share are now expected to be between $ 2.42 and $ 2.62, compared to its previous forecast of $ 2.34 to $ 2.54.

Read the full results report here.

Shares shut barely decrease because the rally takes a breather earlier than massive tech features

The S&P 500 slipped slightly from a record high on Tuesday as Wall Street prepared for the heart of corporate earnings season, including reports from a number of blue-chip companies and big tech players.

The broad equity benchmark fell 0.2% to 3,849.62 after hitting a new intraday record at the start of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.96 points, or 0.1%, to 30,937.04. At one point, the 30-share indicator was trading more than 150 points higher. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% from a record high to 13,626.06.

General Electric stocks rose 2.7% in the fourth quarter against better-than-expected industrial free cash flow and rosy outlook for the year. Johnson & Johnson rose more than 2% after the drugmaker’s profits beat expectations. 3M was also up 3.3% after strong results.

Tech giant Microsoft will announce its second quarter results after the bell. Microsoft’s shares rose more than 1%. Apple, Facebook, Caterpillar and Tesla are expected to report back later this week.

In sharply shortened stocks, including GameStop and AMC Entertainment, volatility increased again as avid private investors active in chat rooms continued to oppose short-selling by hedge funds. The volatility has worried some investors that stocks are pulling away from fundamentals as speculation is rampant.

“The short squeeze / volatility we’ve seen in sharply downturned stocks like GameStop and others only further confirms that at least in the short term, complacent / foamy investor sentiment is the greatest short-term risk to stocks,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report said in a note Tuesday.

GameStop hit another 92.7% record on Tuesday. AMC grew by more than 12%.

Companies started the winning season with a high beat rate. Of the S&P 500 components that have already reported profits, over 70% have exceeded Wall Street expectations for sales and earnings, according to Bank of America.

“The combination of virus control and political support should support economic growth this year and encourage broader industry participation in the economy and a strong recovery in earnings in later quarters,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments .

The Biden government announced Tuesday that it could be open to optimizing suitability for future stimulus testing. President Joe Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion proposal calls for direct deposits of $ 1,400. However, the plan has been criticized by a non-partisan group of lawmakers because of its high price.

Coronavirus cases have hit more than 100 million cases worldwide in just 13 months as mutations increase the spread. Moderna said Monday that its vaccine offers some protection against a variant found in South Africa, while officials in Minnesota reported the first US-confirmed case of a strain found in Brazil.

Investors also waited for a new Federal Reserve policy statement as the central bank began its two-day meeting on Tuesday.

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen was confirmed as Treasury Secretary and was the first woman to hold the position.

The prime malls values ​​are down 45% in comparison with 2016: Inexperienced Avenue

A visitor looks down an empty hallway at the Fashion Mall in Keystone in Indianapolis on Wednesday, March 18, 2020. Simon Property Group, the largest shopping mall owner in the nation, is closing all of its malls and retail properties because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Darron Cummings | AP

When Macy’s Chief Executive Jeff Gennette stated at an investor meeting in early 2020 that a “division of malls” was emerging and that the state of the subordinate malls was continuing to “rapidly decline”, he had nothing bad to do with, say, A-rated malls.

Instead, Gennette said the department store retailer will continue to invest in its A-rated malls locations as it has closed other underperforming properties.

According to a report by commercial real estate services company Green Street released this week, the values ​​of even some of the best malls in the US have plummeted astonishingly in recent years. Green Street now estimates that the scores for A-rated shopping centers have fallen by around 45% compared to 2016, which peaked after a run-up after the Great Recession.

A-rated shopping malls are an important part of surveillance in the retail real estate industry as they make up most of the value of malls in the United States. According to Green Street, there are around 250 of them, which is a quarter of the roughly 1,000 malls in America. They average $ 750 in sales per square foot compared to an A ++ mall at $ 1,100 or a B mall at $ 425 and a C mall at $ 250.

“Mall values ​​have made a very strong recovery from the global financial crisis,” said Vince Tibone, senior retail analyst at Green Street, in an interview.

“The general retail environment was much healthier,” he said. “At the time, the feeling was that e-commerce was a big deal, but malls were more immune. And the feeling in ‘A’ malls was completely different. We had a lot of transactional evidence that strongly suggested it – to the best malls in the country – Net operating income grew at a healthy pace, cap rates were low and funds were available. “

But that story has changed over time. Even on A-rated malls, fundamentals have gradually weakened, in large part due to the weaknesses of department store chains, who historically have been the anchor tenants, attracting shoppers and encouraging other retailers and restaurants to move in, Tibone said he did exerted even more pressure in the past 12 months as the Covid pandemic brought new challenges.

The largest US shopping mall owner, Simon Property Group, owns a significant portion of the US A-rated malls and outlet centers. Its shares have fallen more than 32% in the past 12 months. Investors have pulled back on Simon, even if many analysts say it’s the strongest player in the mall. Simon has a market cap of more than $ 32 billion.

A representative for Simon declined to comment on the Green Street report.

However, the biggest risk in the years to come isn’t for A-rated malls, but B- and C-rated malls, Green Street said. The latter two groups will have to find entirely new uses in the years to come, while A-rated malls have a much better chance of remaining viable by adding non-retail space to the mix.

For example, Simon traded two department stores in Broadway Square Mall in Tyler, Texas and Cape Cod Mall in Barnstable, Massachusetts for a Dick’s Sporting Goods and a Target, respectively. The Real Estate Investment Trust expects to spend around $ 140 million on ongoing refurbishment and redevelopment projects by the end of this year.

“Death spiral”

Obsolete anchors are the number one risk factor for mall values, according to Green Street. The real estate company estimates that around 360 department stores in shopping centers have closed since 2016. Around half of the remaining department stores in shopping centers are expected to be closed by the end of 2025.

“Department stores pay minimal rents, but their impact on the center can be far greater when co-ownership clauses are triggered,” said Green Street. These clauses allow tenants to lower their rents, usually when there are at least two free anchorages on a property.

Macy’s is about to close dozens more department stores this year, while JC Penney is considering another 15 closings through March, after more than 150 stores closed since filing for bankruptcy last spring. (The company emerged from bankruptcy after being bought by Simon and Brookfield Asset Management.)

Green Street estimates that Macy’s currently accounts for 18% of US malls’ anchorage. Penney accounts for another 18%; Sears 2%; while other department store operators like Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus account for 27%; Anchors from non-department stores make up the remaining anchorage in shopping centers.

North Carolina department store chain Belk filed for bankruptcy protection on Tuesday as private equity firm Sycamore Partners will take majority control. It’s unclear whether the deal will include additional store closures.

“A mall is a fragile ecosystem,” said Green Street. “When conditions deteriorate noticeably, a mall can enter a ‘death spiral’ – in which lower sales productivity leads to falling occupancy, resulting in fewer visitors being attracted to a declining group of retailers, which is the cycle of declining sales and utilization continues. “

“This vicious cycle can continue until the mall becomes obsolete,” it said.

The UK coronavirus dying toll exceeds 100,000

Paramedics work in an ambulance parked outside the Royal London Hospital in east London on January 21, 2021.

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS | AFP | Getty Images

LONDON – The official UK death toll from the coronavirus pandemic hit 100,000 on Tuesday. That was the grim milestone reached as a recent surge in infections continued to put pressure on hospitals and emergency services.

The latest government data showed an additional 1,631 people had died within 28 days of testing positive. To date, the UK has had over 3.6 million infections.

The UK has been particularly hard hit by the pandemic that hit the country almost a year ago. The first two reported Covid-19 cases occurred on January 31, 2020 in the tourist city of York, in northern England.

Now, a year later, the UK is in its third national lockdown, battling an increase in infections and subsequent hospitalizations and deaths caused by a more communicable variant of the virus. The mutation, first discovered in the south-east of England in September 2020, then spread to London and is now responsible for the majority of new infections in Great Britain. This has resulted in more people going to the hospital and putting the health system under extreme pressure.

The UK has the fifth highest number of cases in the world after the US, India, Brazil and Russia, according to Johns Hopkins University. France with around 3.1 million cases, followed by Italy and Spain with around 2.5 million cases each, but the UK has a higher death toll than its European neighbors.

Experts have attributed the UK’s harsh experiences during the pandemic to a number of factors, including the subsequent initial lockdown that caused it to struggle to gain control of the fast-spreading virus and hesitation about the following two lockdowns when the cases had already increased again, periods of relaxation. A poor testing and traceability system was also a factor.

On a more positive note, the UK is leading the world in its coronavirus vaccination campaign. It was the first country to approve and introduce the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, and the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University.

After the vaccination campaign started in early December, weeks before the EU, she has now vaccinated a large part of her priority groups. elderly and healthcare / nursing home workers and is now offering the vaccine to those over 70 and anyone at extreme risk.

To date, it has vaccinated over 6.8 million people with at least the first dose of a vaccine.

Sammie brings out a smelling candle with Drake and Erykah Badu

Roomies, if there’s one thing singers guaranteed to do, it is making sure they always give their fans what they want! Today Sammie announced that he would be joining Drake and Erykah Badu by bringing out a scented candle that smells like him.

The singer of “Prada U” made his announcement on Instagram. He shared a picture of the candle along with a shirt with a photo of his younger self from his music video to the hit “I Like It”. He titled the photo: “A characteristic scent that expresses the aura and smell of Sammie. Every time I meet my fans, I get compliments for my fragrance. So I was inspired to create a candle and recreate that aura and vibration. “

The headline continued, “There’s also a bundle that comes with the“ But I Was Her First Crush ”hoodie (only 200 available for the bundle.) PRE-ORDER NOW. * Link in bio *‼ ️ ”Sammie released five fragrances with Simply Naked Candle Co. The fragrances include; “Pure Love”, “Pure Honey”, “Indigo”, “All Night”, “Peace” and “Dream About Me”. The candles range from $ 25 to $ 40, and his “Dream About Me” package includes a candle and t-shirt that cost $ 70.

Sammie’s price points seem to be on par with other celebrity-scented candles. If you remember, we reported back in March last year that Erykah Badu sold out her woman-inspired incense in 19 minutes. The frankincense costs $ 50 and is currently available on their website. In December we also reported that Drake is reportedly launching five candles including: “Sweeter Tings”, “Williamsburg Sleepover”, “Good Thoughts”, “Muskoka” and finally the Drake scented candle we have been waiting for … ” Carby Musk “. Drake’s candles will range from $ 42 to $ 80, but it’s not yet a date that they’ll be released.

Roommates seemed delighted with Sammie’s new release. One commented, “I would definitely buy a Sammie candle.” I know I mean to grab some!

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Basic Electrical (GE) earnings for the fourth quarter of 2020 are inadequate, however the outlook is vivid

General Electric’s shares rose more than 2% Tuesday after the company reported better-than-expected industrial free cash flow for the fourth quarter and a rosy outlook for the year.

The stock briefly rose more than 10% just before the markets opened on Tuesday, but lost much of those gains as the day wore on.

The company ended the fourth quarter with industrial free cash flow of $ 4.37 billion, a surprise after CEO Larry Culp forecast at least $ 2.5 billion for the last three months of the year. The strong quarter drove the company’s industrial free cash flow positive for the year.

GE also forecast industrial free cash flow of $ 2.5 billion to $ 4.5 billion in 2021.

The company also reported revenue for the fourth quarter ended December 31, which slightly exceeded analysts’ expectations, while its profits fell short of estimates as the industrial giant continued to weather the coronavirus pandemic.

Here are some of the ways GE has performed against Wall Street expectations, based on the average analyst estimates produced by Refinitiv:

  • Adjusted EPS: 8 cents compared to 9 cents expected.
  • Revenue: $ 21.93 billion versus $ 21.83 billion

The company’s better-than-expected revenue declined 16% year over year for the quarter. Unadjusted, the company reported diluted earnings per share of 27 cents.

“Over the course of 2020, we have significantly improved GE’s profitability and cash performance despite a persistently difficult macroeconomic environment,” Culp said in a statement. “The fourth quarter was a strong free cash flow end to a challenging year that reflected the results of better business operations and strong and improved power and renewables orders.”

The 129-year-old industrial conglomerate makes jet engines, gas turbines, and more, and offers some financial services. The gadgets and lightbulbs it made its name for in the 20th century are no longer in production as the company shrinks and focuses on making a profit.

On a conference call with analysts, Culp said the Covid pandemic “hit us hard” but the company managed to bolster its financial position during the year. He added that the company plans to “play more insults in 2021”.

JPMorgan analyst Steve Tusa, who called GE’s fall years ago, said in a statement to customers Tuesday that the company’s fundamentals were broadly in line with expectations for the quarter, even though free cash flow was surprisingly high.

“The bottom line is that FCF is contributing to the result for the day as usual, but the underlying performance is not too far outside of what we expected,” he said.

Gordon Haskett’s analyst John Inch, who has a hold rating on GE and a target price of $ 7, was not impressed by the increase in cash flow. He told clients that “strong free cash was a hallmark of the recession for almost all industrial companies that freed up working capital due to weak sales.”

The company’s fourth quarter performance was largely driven by an increase in orders in its power and renewable energy businesses, which offset declines in aviation and healthcare. Carolina Dybeck Happe, GE CFO, told analysts that all segments except aviation improved cash flow and “ended the year stronger than it started”.

GE’s power business saw orders up 26% year over year to $ 5.62 billion for the quarter, largely driven by strong gas power plant sales. The company was able to cut fixed costs in its gas power business by 12%, generating positive cash flow for 2020, a year ahead of schedule.

The renewable energy segment posted orders of $ 6.29 billion, up 34% year over year. Revenue in this segment declined approximately 6% year over year to $ 4.44 billion.

Orders in the beleaguered aviation division, which was once the company’s cash cow, fell 41% year over year when the pandemic ruined air travel in 2020. GE stated in its outlook for 2021 that “aviation revenue is expected to remain unchanged year-over-year. This depends on the commercial aviation market accelerating in the second half of 2021 and timing for the delivery of aircraft is increasing. “

The Healthcare segment posted orders of $ 4.98 billion, down approximately 15% year over year. However, GE largely attributed the decline to the sale of its biopharma business in March.

“Over the past year our team has proven to be robust and the momentum in our businesses is growing,” said Culp. “We are in leading positions to seize opportunities related to the energy transition, precision health and the future of flight.”

GE’s financial services arm, GE Capital, recorded a net loss of nearly $ 200 million, primarily due to the company’s settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission of $ 200 million. Without admitting or denying any wrongdoing, the company agreed to pay the fine for allegedly misleading investors by not disclosing accounting changes in its power and insurance departments that made the bottom line look better.

Culp said Tuesday that the range of his 2021 performance will largely be determined by his performance in aviation.

GE was doubly exposed to the air traffic impact of the aviation pandemic, a long-standing gem that manufactures and services aircraft engines, as well as the aircraft leasing unit. The company is betting on an increase in shipments in 2021 as Boeing 737 Max shipments resume. GE and the French company Safran manufacture the aircraft’s engines through their CFM joint venture. The federal supervisory authorities re-released the jets for flight at the end of last year after Boeing made a number of safety-related changes after two fatal accidents and started delivering the aircraft last year.

Efforts to predict the recovery of air traffic, however, have proven to be largely inaccurate. Airline executives have warned over the past few weeks that 2021 is off to a difficult start. Bookings fell from the peak of the holiday at the end of the year, along with an increase in Covid infections and more contagious virus strains that have resulted in new travel restrictions in the UK to the US to South Africa.

Culp warned Tuesday that the whiplash of volatile demand for GE engines and maintenance services had weighed on the supply chain.

“Our supply chain has been on a roller coaster ride,” he said. “We’re working as closely as possible with the supply base to help them do what we do, and that’s short term when we have this volume pressure, but also ready for a number of scenarios to see from a return to more normal volumes. “

The stock has suffered a rift in recent months triggered by a surprise third quarter profit reported in October that sent the stock up more than 70% in the fourth quarter. Positive vaccine news, which bodes well for aviation, has continued to surge.

And some investors are bullish about the turnaround for the company under Culp, especially as he forecasts positive cash flow for 2021. GE continued to repay its debt during the pandemic, cutting costs through layoffs in the aviation business, for example.

CFO Dybeck Happe said the company reduced its headcount by 11% in 2020 and found the company continued to support its finances by selling its stake in Baker Hughes. The company reduced its debt by $ 16 billion in 2020 and ended the year with $ 37 billion in liquidity.

– CNBC’s Leslie Josephs contributed to this report.

Covid’s devastating burden on eating places: 2.5 million jobs misplaced

Plastic house tents will be set up outside a restaurant on the Upper West Side as the city continues reopening efforts after restrictions were imposed in New York City on November 1, 2020 to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Noam Galai | Getty Images

More than 110,000 restaurants and restaurants have been temporarily or permanently closed and 2.5 million restaurant jobs have disappeared over the past year, according to a new report taking into account the devastating toll of the pandemic.

“If you look at the industry in terms of actual sales volume at the end of 2020, it was down to 2014 levels. In other words, the industry has set back six years of sales growth,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of research at the National Restaurant Association , while the trade group publishes its annual Industry State Review.

The report, which polled 6,000 operators and 1,000 adults, found restaurant and restaurant sales last year were $ 659 billion – that’s $ 240 billion less than the pre-pandemic year with one Total sales of $ 899 billion.

“2020 was certainly the worst year for the catering industry in its history,” said Riehle.

However, he noted that the Covid crisis caused operators to get creative with new forays into technology and delivery, and many hope that the second half of 2021 will provide an opportunity for recovery as consumers see the Have pent up demand.

“It is important to think of 2021 as the year of transition,” he said. “The industry will definitely take some time to recover.”

The group predicts food and beverage sales will rebound to $ 731.5 billion in 2021, still well below pre-Covid levels in the industry.

The report comes as states like California begin lifting restrictions on restaurants that allow takeaway and delivery only. However, with the number of new Covid cases still unacceptably high, there is a risk of new restrictions even if vaccinations are introduced.

Industry veterans folded

Decades of restaurant experience did not guarantee success as consumers as well as state and local authorities responded to the virus, according to the report. Most of the restaurants that were permanently closed in 2020 were legacy operators in their communities, according to the survey. On average, these restaurants had been in business for 16 years and 72% of those who had closed shutters said they were unlikely to open another restaurant in the coming months or years.

“I think we’ve all become masters of the emotional elasticity that vacillates between hope and despair,” said Philippe Massoud, owner and chef of ilili and ilili Box in New York City. “This roller coaster ride of emotions has really bothered many of us.”

Massoud has been in business for 14 years and has weathered other economic downturns like the Great Recession. But his Lebanese-Mediterranean restaurant has been hit by the pandemic. Sales fell by 80% last year.

Massoud has grown from 165 employees to under 20 and has spent around $ 70,000 building a secure outdoor dining area on his Fifth Avenue location, which he hopes to open soon. At best, he said, it would take two years to make up for his lost sales. In the worst case, it projects five because it is dependent on take-away and delivery.

He has received a loan for the Paycheck Protection Program and is waiting for news on his application for a second draw. He also hopes the government will do more for restaurants. He said he would not have made it without the help he had received so far. He is most concerned about his workers and eager to see if pent-up demand will bring tourism back to the city.

“We hope that our Washington, DC executives will either convert the PPP for the restaurant industry into grants like the Restaurants Act so that we don’t carry this big ball of liability for the next few years,” he said. “That will [need to] March hand in hand to revitalize and save our cities, our neighborhoods. … Not to do that would be a disaster. “

Tech and takeaway alcohol save the day

The most successful restaurants could quickly adapt and innovate to offset the blow of limited operations. By moving into off-premise selling and using technology for delivery, restaurants have gained a lifeline. Selling take-away alcohol was another way to increase sales under the restrictions of eating.

Large operators, including Starbucks and Chipotle, have continued to rely on on-the-go and off-company deals, accelerating new business formats like drive-thru and pick-up as the pandemic changed consumer preferences.

The shift is likely forever as its adoption has taken place in all age groups, Riehle said. He added that the prepandemic of off-premise traffic was around 60% and has increased to around 80% today.

“The convenience market remains a very, very important driver of industry growth,” he said.

– CNBC’s Betsy Spring contributed to this report.