A new study showed that the number of white evangelicals in the United States has fallen from 23% to 14.5% since 2006, and that’s bad news for the GOP.
Aaron Blake of The Washington Post reported on a new study from the Public Religion Research Institute:
While that group made up 23 percent of the population in 2006 – shortly after “value voters” were analyzed to allow George W. Bush to be re-elected – that number has now dropped to 14.5 percent, the data suggests.
However, PRRI data suggests that even within the GOP, white evangelicals are declining: white evangelicals rose from 37 percent of the GOP in 2006 to 29 percent in 2020.
The age difference is just as important. While 22 percent of Americans 65 and older are white evangelicals, only 7 percent of 18-29 year olds are.
Fewer white evangelicals mean fewer Republican voters
Republicans have relied on the white evangelical voice since the 1980s. The Republican domestic social issues platform continues to be powered by white evangelicals, but with these voters making up a smaller portion of the electorate, living up to their beliefs is a losing business for the GOP.
Fewer white evangelicals mean fewer GOP base voters, which results in elections being lost.
The Republican Party base is aging and dying
A recent study of 2020 voter records showed that the Republican Party’s base is over 75 and its population is declining. The backbone of the white evangelical movement is over 65 years old.
The same pattern repeats itself with the Republican Party hastening its own decline by holding on to Trump and repeating what doesn’t work. The Republican response to these demographic realities is to try to rig elections to prevent people who are more likely to vote Democrats from voting, but this is a finger in the levee strategy.
The dam breaks around them and soon the Republicans could be swept away.
Mr. Easley is the executive editor of the White House press pool and congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a bachelor’s degree in political science. His thesis focused on public policy with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and professional memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the American Political Science Association