Moderna (MRNA) Q3 Outcomes 2022

Modern lowered its 2022 sales forecast for its Covid-19 vaccine on Thursday after it missed Wall Street expectations for the third quarter.

Moderna lowered its guidance to $18 billion to $19 billion in revenue from its Covid vaccine this year, down from its previous guidance of $21 billion. This is due to supply chain constraints that have delayed some vaccine shipments to 2023, according to the company.

Moderna stock fell as much as 9% during the trade but bounced back to finally close less than 1% at $147.50.

CEO Stephane Bancel said Moderna’s fill-and-finish contract manufacturers had to delay $2 billion to $3 billion in shipments because they struggled to launch two new products at the same time, an omicron BA.5 booster for the USA and a BA. 1 shot for other parts of the world. Vaccine vials were also switched from 10 doses to five doses, creating challenges, he said.

“We’re working on a lot of these issues,” Bancel told analysts during the company’s conference call. “There are many lessons to learn. We’re working on that […] robust fixes for the end of the year to put us in a much better position for 2023.”

Moderna’s third-quarter revenue was $3.36 billion, down 32% from the same period in 2021. The company reported net income of $1.04 billion for the quarter, down 68% year over year.

Cash was $17 billion, down slightly from $18.1 billion in the second quarter due to $1 billion in share buybacks and an $800 million federal tax payment.

Here’s how the company has performed versus Wall Street expectations, based on average analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:

  • Adjusted result: $2.53 per share versus $3.29 expected
  • Revenue: $3.36 billion versus $3.53 billion expected

The Covid vaccine remains Moderna’s only commercially available product. The company launched updated boosters targeting the omicron BA.5 variant in the US in September.

Arpa Garay, Moderna’s chief commercial officer, said the number of boosters administered to date is “quite low,” although uptake follows a similar pattern to that seen in fall 2021.

As Covid becomes endemic, Moderna expects annual global demand for vaccines to be similar, if not higher, than demand for flu shots, as Covid is a more severe virus than flu.

This means that the annual demand for Covid vaccines could be around 600 million doses, although it is still too early to make a reliable prediction, according to Garay.

Moderna recently announced a partnership with Merck to develop a personalized cancer vaccine, with data expected in the fourth quarter.

The company expects phase three efficacy data for its respiratory syncytial virus vaccine candidate this winter. The company also expects data on the phase 3 immune response of its influenza vaccine candidate in the first quarter of 2023.

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