What a difference a few months make. In the spring, it looked like the GOP was poised to make huge gains in the House of Representatives and retake the Senate. Now, as inflation worries, particularly gas prices, recede and post-Dobbs Democratic enthusiasm soars, the GOP is – according to the Washington Post – in complete disarray, with intra-party disagreements over Trump’s hand-picked nominees and serious funding problems threatening to upset plans in Congress to turn around While it’s highly likely at this point that the GOP will retake the House of Representatives, it’s not a given and Democrats are slight favorites to win the Senate. The GOP is in turmoil.
According to the post:
Republican Senate Chairman Mitch McConnell (Ky.) last week urged his fellow GOP senators to unite and focus on fundraising after spending much of the last month on the phone with donors who attempted to make up for party deficits. Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (California) has rallied his members to refocus their message on policy arguments he plans to make public on September 19th create a clearer contrast between his party and President Biden on issues such as immigration and crime and the economy.
Yes, unlike this spring, when gas prices and inflationary scares loomed, Democrats can expect a heavy dose of allegations of border mismanagement, a difficult issue for Democrats though far more manageable than the $5-a-per prices Gallon at the pump and a stronger economy, issues that touch every American on a daily basis.
As always, Trump and his subjects, especially his hand-picked candidates, play a big part in the difficulties:
The unity messages were intended to dampen distracting divisions that have sprung up within the party over controversial Senate candidates backed by former President Donald Trump and the party’s ability to fully fund campaigns in the face of a huge financial advantage for Democrats in key states.
Amazingly, Herschel Walker has emerged as Nate Silver’s most likely Republican pick-up by ten percentage points, but the fact that the race is evenly balanced, coupled with trouble in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Arizona, all driven by Trump-picked candidates, continues to pursue Republicans.
Trump himself continues to drag the party down as he represents what many consider to be “yesterday’s GOP” and has nothing to offer looking ahead.
“This is yesterday’s kind of crew, dealing with yesterday’s issues, with no personality and no optimism,” said one Republican strategist, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to offer an honest assessment. The strategist was referring to candidates like Pennsylvania’s Mehmet Oz, Arizona’s Blake Masters and Ohio’s JD Vance, all of whom have been pushed to victory by a Trump endorsement in brutal primaries.
There is no question that Trump’s hand-picked candidates pose a massive problem. Mitch McConnell himself essentially admitted this last month. But the bigger problems are more persistent. The economy is improving. Just as voters were repeatedly reminded of the difficulties of gas prices in the spring. Now voters are constantly reminded that prices have shot down and are likely to fall further as we enter the “fall”. In addition, the Supreme Court is more unpopular than at any time in history. Voters directly link SCOTUS to MAGA extremism and the loss of women’s right to bodily autonomy. Voters are likely to worry about what MAGA extremism might lead to next.
But Democrats will likely focus on the positives they’ve brought to the nation. First and foremost is simple stability. The more Donald Trump rants about significant and self-evident issues, the more voters are reminded that nearly every Republican on the ballot still supports the man to an alarming degree. In addition, Democrats and Joe Biden have managed to win stunningly impressive legislative victories that are taking the nation into the 21st century and proving that government can serve the people. And yes, Democrats are suddenly leading the culture wars as the public becomes increasingly alienated by MAGA efforts to suppress women’s rights and tighten race relations, as well as advances along the LGBTQ frontline.
Expect Biden and the Democrats to counter GOP efforts to focus on the border and crime by announcing new policies aimed at addressing concerns.
In summary, the article notes that the GOP is terrified that their expected surge could result in only a small majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps even the loss of a Senate seat or even two (an extremely significant number), which would put the Democrats in one far stronger position in 2024, when control of at least one side of Congress could scuttle GOP plans to decide less about voting and more about state legislatures in the presidential election.
Meanwhile, the Democrats need only continue what they have been doing for the past two years to emerge as the adult party, the stable party, the party in charge and the party that cares about democracy – matching the “Democratic Party”. .
@JasonMiciak believes a day without learning is a day not lived. He is a political writer, columnist, author and lawyer. He is a Canadian-born dual citizen who spent his teens and college days in the Pacific Northwest and has since lived in seven states. Today he enjoys life as a single father to a young girl and writes on the beaches of the Gulf Coast. He loves making his flower pots, cooking and is currently studying philosophy of science, religion and non-mathematical principles behind quantum mechanics and cosmology. Please do not hesitate to contact us for lectures or other concerns.