Ending unemployment advantages early might not have the specified impact

FREDERIC J. BRAUN | AFP | Getty Images

Job hunting has been dampened in 12 states that have opted out of federal unemployment programs in the past few weeks, suggesting new analysis suggests policies may not work as planned.

States have ended the pandemic-era benefits – including an additional $ 300 per week – since June 12, about three months before it expired on September 6.

They are the first of a total of 25 states, all run by Republican governors, and withdrawing from programs to encourage recipients to look for work amid record jobs.

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Generous benefits provide an incentive to stay home and make it difficult for companies to hire, the governors claim. Critics say that social benefits do not have much of an impact on workers’ decisions and that cutting funds will hurt the economy by cutting household spending.

However, workers in the dozen states that have already cut federal aid are looking for jobs with less vigor than in other areas, according to an analysis published Tuesday by Jobsite Indeed.

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According to Indeed’s economist AnnElizabeth Konkel, this is the opposite dynamic one would expect given the political intent to end the services early.

“People in these states are currently searching less than the average job seeker,” she said.

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In Alaska, Iowa, Mississippi, and Missouri, whose benefits ended June 12, job searches are about 4% below the national average, according to Indeed data.

Activity is 1% lower in eight states – Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming – that ended on June 19.

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“You’d think they’d be looking for more,” said Konkel. “At least for now, this is suppressing the idea that federal unemployment benefits are the main reason for friction in the labor market.”

The data, as measured by clicks on job postings, could shift in the coming weeks, she said.

How performance gains will affect the job market is difficult to say with certainty without letting more time pass, says Michael Strain, director of economic studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-wing think tank.

But it is likely that the labor market has rebounded to the point where the $ 300 weekly supplement has a negative impact, he said.

“The challenge to public order is to balance the good with the bad,” said Strain.

“In June 2021, I think unemployment benefits are doing more harm than good – to workers and the economy at large, because of the generosity we offer them,” he added.

$ 300 per week

Unemployment benefit usually replaces around half of the wages before a worker is laid off.

Congress increased weekly aid by $ 600 in the early days of the Covid pandemic. Lawmakers have also provided funding for the long-term unemployed and groups such as the self-employed and gig workers who are normally not eligible for government benefits.

Since then, they’ve cut the weekly grant in half – to $ 300 a week – and provided federal benefits through Labor Day.

According to an estimate by University of Chicago economist Peter Ganong, that additional $ 300 will pay about 42% of recipients as much or more than their previous salary. (These are primarily low-wage workers.)

“That makes it a bad financial deal for a large part of the workforce,” said Strain.

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Employment participation has remained relatively constant, which is a particular cause for concern when there was a record number of job vacancies in April, he said.

However, economists have pointed to reasons other than benefits for labor market dynamics.

For one, Covid health issues would likely keep some at home, they said.

A highly contagious variant of Covid makes up a larger proportion of US cases, and only 56% of US adults are fully vaccinated against Covid-19. The Biden government said Tuesday it will likely miss its target of vaccinating 70% of adults by July 4th.

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Childcare can continue to be a challenge for families if the daycare centers are permanently closed, the schools do not learn personally again or the summer camps are not fully utilized.

Rebooting the economy (and the job taking place that comes with it) isn’t as easy as flipping a switch, economists said.

“I don’t think it’s the whole puzzle,” said Konkel of the improved benefits. “I think it’s part of the puzzle.”

Some also question the notion of labor shortages.

“Nobody says it’s a ‘customer shortage’ when companies offer high prices and poor service,” said Bharat Ramamurti, deputy director of the National Economic Council, in a tweet. “But some say it is a ‘labor shortage’ when companies offer low wages and poor social benefits.”

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimated that the $ 300 allowance had a “small but likely noticeable” impact on job searches and labor availability in early 2021.

If 7 out of 28 unemployed people get job offers that they would normally take, the availability of the additional $ 300 per week is forecast to force 1 in 7 to turn down the offer.

Beyond $ 300, most Republican states are also ending pandemic unemployment benefits for the self-employed and gig workers prematurely. These workers lose their benefits completely.

“I don’t think it’s right from a political point of view to bring these workers down to zero,” said Strain.

Instead, eligibility for these benefits should gradually tighten and workers should be notified, he said.

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