A protester outside the US Supreme Court in Washington, DC, USA, on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.
Eric Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A growing number of supply chain managers say President Donald Trump’s tariffs and related costs are leading to layoffs and less confidence in the investments needed to grow their companies.
Twice as many supply chain managers (32%) are reporting layoffs as in April (16%), according to a new survey from the Association for Supply Chain Management and CNBC.
“Tariffs just don’t affect the bottom line. They affect people,” said Abe Eshkenazi, CEO of ASCM. “We are seeing layoffs because companies are trying to manage their cost structure. If you don’t have the resources you need and the skills and knowledge of talented people, this will have a long-term impact.”
While the national unemployment rate has only increased, not spiked, since April, when Trump’s sweeping tariffs were first imposed, job growth last year outside of a recession was at its lowest level since the early 2000s, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December jobs report. What some are calling a “hiring recession” is characterized by rising long-term unemployment and paltry job creation that has stalled since April.
A majority of respondents (65%) reported a cost increase of at least 10-15%, which ASCM says can be a “major shock” that alters some companies’ budgets, strategy and profitability. 34 percent of those surveyed reported a cost increase of more than 15 percent.
As businesses across the economy eagerly await a Supreme Court decision on the legality of many of Trump’s tariffs and the possibility of refunds, Eshkenazi said the broader impact on the economy cannot be easily reversed.
“The Supreme Court decision may clarify many legal questions, but not many of the operational, financial and human impacts that we have already seen,” he said. “Investments are impacted by the fact that there are shorter planning cycles and time horizons that make it more difficult for companies to plan. Right now you are in a constant emergency mode, not a planning mode,” Eshkenazi added.
The survey of supply chain managers in industries across the economy was conducted between December 15, 2025 and January 7, 2026 with over 220 respondents. It was ASCM’s third customs-related survey in the past year and the first conducted in collaboration with CNBC.
Companies, both large and small, have told CNBC that even if court-ordered refunds offset some of the costs resulting from Trump’s trade policies, they cannot make up for the time lost due to a drop in productivity from the additional administrative hours required to file paperwork for the expansive tariffs.
“Navigating the rates is an administrative burden,” Eshkenazi said. “We spend a lot of time tracking rule changes, validating a lot of code, and trying to find the most effective way to work in the short term without a long-term plan.”
Customs bonds are “dead money”
In addition to the time-consuming paperwork, business owners told CNBC that some of the costs associated with the tariffs would not be covered by refunds. Baby products maker Lalo, which paid limited tariffs before tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, was ordered by U.S. Customs to post security for customs bonds to ensure the company can pay the tariff bill.
“We’ve never had to do this before,” said Michael Wieder, co-founder of Lalo. “This was in addition to the millions we had paid in tariffs. We posted hundreds of thousands of dollars as security for our customs bond,” he said.
These capital challenges are not unusual, according to Eshkenazi. “The money in these bonds is essentially dead money,” he said.
The price of the customs bonds covers 10% of duties and taxes paid over a rolling 12-month period. “So when tariffs and taxes go up, the customs bond goes up,” said Lori Mullins, operations manager at Rogers & Brown Custom Brokers. Importers must provide the guarantee company with audited financial data for the previous year showing that they have the necessary funds to cover the amount of the guarantee. “If the importer does not have the funds, the bond requires security and in many cases this is in the form of a letter of credit. For this reason the funds remain tied up,” Mullins said.
Normally, the funds are held by customs for 314 days until the duties paid can be verified and approved by the government.
During this time, the company’s cash contributed to the bonds will not earn interest. “I could use this money to grow my business or even have it in an account that accrues interest. That takes money away from small businesses that they can use as working capital and sell more products. That hurts our business,” Wieder said.
Business owners have previously told CNBC that it is unrealistic to expect they will recover even if the tariffs are refunded to them through a Supreme Court decision, and many said they are also in trouble because of high-interest predatory loans to pay the tariffs.
Eshkenazi said members of his association told him that the money they are spending on tariffs and associated costs is simply a tax that is affecting their supply chain. “You can’t acquire and reskill staff overnight,” he said. “This isn’t just about resilience and responding to the court ruling. This is about having certainty about the U.S. economy and what pricing models they can plan for.”
Survey respondents’ economic outlook was mixed: 38% of supply chain professionals were negative; 27% neutral; and 35% positive. More than half (56%) are worried about a recession, but about a third of respondents have a neutral or negative view of the economy, resulting in a “blurred and uncertain picture of the U.S. economy,” according to ASCM.
“This discrepancy reflects confusion and a lack of confidence among companies to plan for the future,” Eshkenazi said. Of the 56 percent of ASCM members who fear a recession, two-thirds believe it could begin in the second quarter. “This is not good for companies that want to make investments,” he added.
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