U.S. President-elect Joe Biden shows reporters as he arrives to announce candidates and candidates for his economic policy team at his interim headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, U.S., December 1, 2020.
Leah Millis | Reuters
If President-elect Joe Biden keeps his campaign promise to provide student loans to many borrowers, he will tick an important box for his constituency.
However, as a boost to the weak US economy, the move may not have much of an impact and will generate significant resistance early in his presidency.
What to do about the burgeoning $ 1.6 trillion education debt has been a sensitive issue for government officials. Half the debt has amassed in the last decade when effective nationalization of the process opened a barrage of tuition hikes and college loans that made it difficult for many graduates to pay bills, buy houses, and raise families.
The most likely path Biden will follow is a $ 10,000 forgiveness plan at a time when the average charge per graduate is just under $ 30,000.
According to many estimates, this would result in total savings of more than $ 400 billion.
However, this would raise a number of sensitive questions that the new administration may find difficult to answer. These include questions about wealth inequality, as higher income borrowers owe a greater share, the moral risk of wiping out loans to a select group, and whether forgiveness is even the most effective way to address the problem.
“There is growing evidence that student loan debt has macroeconomic consequences,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Outside of mortgage debt, this is the largest household debt outstanding and it’s still growing rapidly.”
In fact, at the beginning of 2006, outstanding education loans were only $ 480 billion. However, two pieces of legislation that effectively guaranteed access to college, and the funding required to do so, caused that number to climb 67% over the next four years to $ 800 billion, and since then that figure has grown over the past ten years Years more than doubled.
Studies have linked the burden to lower household education, higher crime rates, and lower borrower confidence in the future.
But whether it would really help just wiping the slate clean is an open question.
Even if Zandi insists that the idea benefit the middle class, he sees significant weaknesses.
“I think I would focus more on earnings-related repayment plans to provide relief to stubborn student loan borrowers,” he said. “If you are really trying to meet our long-term educational needs, which I believe are critical to long-term economic growth, we need to think more deeply about offering higher levels of education at a much lower cost.”
He added that direct debt relief begs the question, “Are we really going to subsidize tuition? You do. You give students money to give to universities that have raised tuition … and it doesn’t.” really help someone. “
Tie debt to income
The bigger lending effectiveness question was researching a working paper released last month by the University of Chicago’s prestigious Booth School of Business.
Researchers Sylvain Catherine of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business and Constantine Yannelis of the Booth School compared the benefits of forgiveness to those of the income-related payment plans Zandi mentioned. They found that the latter offered better benefits, especially for lower-income borrowers.
Those with higher debt burdens, the study found, tend to be students in postgraduate programs who also make more money. Thus, they would benefit more from forgiveness and increase growing inequality between income classes in the United States
“We find that universal and limited forgiveness guidelines are very regressive, with the vast majority of the benefits being given to high-income individuals,” the authors say. “On the other hand, more borrowers to enroll in [Income-Driven Repayment] Plans that combine repayment with income result in borrowers forgiving in the middle of the income distribution. “
Current IDR plans, as they are called, would provide payments of 10-15% discretionary income for borrowers with incomes 150% above the poverty line. Remaining credits will be awarded after 20-25 years. The regulations mean that low-income borrowers may still pay nothing or very little over the life of their loans.
“Forgiveness would benefit the upper decile as much as the lower three deciles combined,” wrote Catherine and Yannelis. “Blacks and Hispanics would also benefit far less than the balances suggest. Registering households that would benefit from income-based repayment is the most cost-effective and advanced policy we are considering.”
Selling these industries, however, could be difficult at a time when debtors and progressive politicians on Biden’s side of the aisle are demanding immediate relief.
The president-elect made populist issues like student loan relief a centerpiece of his campaign, and he’s being pushed to get through with some members of his party advocating $ 50,000 forgiveness.
“It will be transformative and empower Biden’s approval among borrowers, who will benefit, and further bring educated millennials and other X-age cohorts into the democratic coalition,” said Beacon Research in a recently released policy note on the latter Theme .
Beacon expects the topic to be part of Biden’s first 100-day agenda.
The opposition is likely to be substantial, however, and will allow the new president and Republican lawmakers, who might still control the Senate, to meet early.
The Responsible Budget Committee feared it would reignite the country’s $ 27.4 trillion in debt and said the $ 115 billion to $ 260 billion economic benefit would “yield a much lower return than other options available to policy makers “.
The organization said government spending in the form of direct payments such as expanded unemployment benefits, which is part of the stimulus packages discussed in Congress, would be more beneficial.
There will also be general moral hazard political backlash from those who see folly in rewarding students for incurring huge debts that they could not afford to colleges that took advantage of the government’s generosity for the sake of it Increase costs.
The government has “allowed universities to go down this insane path of increasing costs with no added benefit to students,” said Carol Roth, director of Intercap Merchant Partners.
“The colleges have a lot of responsibility, and they basically took over the government-provided dollars in a predatory fashion,” she added.
While recognizing the bigger economic troubles, Roth said it was wrong for taxpayers to do the bill for some borrowers rather than others.
“We have to move away from the governments that choose winners and losers,” she said. “The government shouldn’t do that, and it’s not fair to have people who choose not to go to college, directly or indirectly, and who shoulder the burden of the situation they didn’t matter.”